There are a few questions that i hope you may help me with.
After going through the recent Quoter report, i found that there is some unhealthy situations in the company finance.
Trade receivables number is hiking a new high. The number even is higher than the earning of xxx.
[LJ] Yes, our nature of business is normally base on milestone, and typically the collection is rather long. The industry norm is like 12 months. It has been a common pattern for software industry. However, it does not mean that we should be the same as the industry.
We have since last year trying to improve various areas to enhance the upfront collection. Some of the things we have done are like: -
a) increase upfront deposit from 20% to 50% for new customers
b) refrain from starting job or control delivery if no payment is received
c) improve collection to be more aggressive
Over the past 2 years, we have improved the situation of our A/R as follows. But before that I would like to point out that Other Receivable should not be concluded as A/R as it is the investment amount to China (Other Receivable in FY 2007 = 2 Mil). Because initially we classified the progressive investment as cash advance. After the conversion this year, this receivable will be reclassified as investment. As for other receivable in FY 2006, they were for investment (RM 1.0 Mil).
FY 2006 FY 2007
Revenue 7.78 Mil 12.4 Mil
A/R 5.9 Mil 8.0 Mil
Other Receivable 2.5 Mil 2.0 Mil
A/R vs Revenue 75.8% 64.5%
For this coming financial year 2008, we foresee the A/R will be further improved below 55%.
We are continuously looking to improve the A/R situation, but is not something we can change over night. But we are not stopping at this.
Means, company has earning in business,but receive no cash from client. Is the company having any difficulty to collect cash from client?
If possible, please advise me that the amount of money own by the largest client and what is that company?
[LJ] Our client base, since IPO, has been improved where we do not rely on single largest customer anymore. For this question, I should reply such that the largest money owing is ranging from 500K to 1.5 Million for any project (some customer may have multiple projects with us). Typically, if the client is unable to pay in lump sum, we will strive for instalment agreement with them. This arrangement is working OK so far for us.
How many months of credit terms for clients?
[LJ] Normal credit terms is about 30 days from the invoice date.
From the point of management, how much is trade receivables will change to bad debts provision?
[LJ] So far, all our A/Rs were able to be fully collected. We have not had write-offs provision so far. And by looking at our current A/R list, we do not foresee any write-off potential.
Up to date, any further reduction or increase in trade receivables and cash? please advise the estimated figures.
[LJ] Please see explanation above. Up till today, we do have improvement in A/R and cash. But since we have not announced Q3, please excuse me for not able to reveal the actual figures until we finalize them by end of May 2008.
How is the business in China? as i have not find any income from that development in the last report.
[LJ]The biz was rolled out in Dec 2007. And now has been commercialized and starting to generate revenue.
According to the agreement, the profit sharing is monthly basis, am i right?
[LJ] The collaboration has been converted to equity relationship, the announcement was made subsequently last year. Currently we are pending the completion of equity conversion.
If you find that is too difficult to answer via email, i am willing to visit the management if you able to arrange a special appoinment for me.
[LJ] Email or meeting is OK with us. You are always welcome to visit our office too. Please do let me know if you desire to visit us. I can arrange for it.
不能说的秘密
2008年4月30日星期三
Reply from a listing company to small shareholder
2008年4月24日星期四
半年的基本投资路
回想自己开始决定长期投资，从去年１０月算起，现在刚刚好半年了。
我觉得是时候分享一些看法和感想了。
拥有持久竞争力的企业，通常在巴菲特的眼中，拥有以下的特色：
a. 维持不变或一直增长的ROE
b. 和ROE相近的ROA数字 （为了剔出债务带来的不实际增长）
c. 强劲的自由现金流
对我而言，许多企业正很难做到 C 项。盈利持续提升，对于长期投资而言，不算什么。重点是，企业可否在保存盈利/ 现金的同时，继续保持竞争力。只有这样的公司，股东才会因此而受益于企业的增长。不然，只有大股东和基金得益于股价的波动。
我的选股原则，基本上是以上的条件。
目前，我持有约十家公司的股票（包括妈妈的投资）。只有组合里的ＳＨＥＬＬ和Ｂｕｒｓａ符合这些条件。Ｖｉｔｒｏｘ的财报也符合这些条件，不过它的历史少于５年。仍然有待观察。
我自己的投资，偏向于小型股，例如Ｍｅｓｄａｑ。原因是我的年龄成本较低和自己倾向于林区的投资看法。我认同他的观点，即股价之所以可以上涨，是因为公司的业绩可以增长、再增长！而且，我们都应该在基金买入前，持有这些股票。所以，大量基金持股的公司，是不会在林区考虑的范围。许多Ｍｅｓｄａｑ公司都符合林区的持股要求。
在这半年的过程里，我同时也发现了保守的Ｇｒａｈａｍ价值投资法。而且，适逢妈妈要求我替她管理和投资一些钱，所以，我认为Ｇｒａｈａｍ的价值投资法，可以给她有个保守的价格空间。ＡＶＤＰＫＧ和ＭＦＣＢ都是因此而被买入的。而ＳＨＥＬＬ和Ｂｕｒｓａ则是符合三大原则的股项。许多公司，都是因为没有低价至我的目标价格，所以都在保留现金，耐心等待。这些投资，股息会比较重要。所以，除了低于价值，和还必须有定期派息的历史，我才会帮妈妈买进。只有非常小部分的资金，用来购买一些便宜的成长股。
检讨这半年里的过错，就是买了不了解管理层背景的Ｋｅｌａｄｉ。当自己知道真相后，已经认同以亏损ＲＭ２０００＋＋的市价，卖出所有股份。
另外，自己在刚开始投资（１０月）是美国房贷开始严重亏损的时候。可是我坚持根据巴菲特的意见，持续关注低价的价值。不要在乎局势和时势变得如何。只要有价值，卖得便宜，就应该买进。经过半年来，股市暴跌了几次，也经过了大选变天的刺激，大市下跌许多，可是一些股的价格还可以维持，甚至上涨。
不相信？ 举个例子，我在１４００－１５００左右买进ＳＨＥＬＬ。在１２００点－１３００点，ＳＨＥＬＬ 依然值得ＲＭ１１．５０，而且还派了ＲＭ０．２０ 的股息，也将派发ＲＭ０．３０ 的股息。长期在我的观察名单的NESTLE，更展现了惊人的增长。综指1500点时，它的股价是RM26左右。现在由于盈利劲升，已经来到了RM30。现时的综指还在挑战1300点。
半年来的感觉很好。也体会到了不打算卖，就没有投资的压力。有股息，就不担心投资没有回报。个别的股价，真的可以逆市而向，因为股价始终反映在价值上。长期而言，股市是称重器。和各位共勉之。
回首来时路
初生之犊
曙光乍现
奇妙旅程
个人经历
皇冠城的封路风波
你试过家门前面建一个收费站的滋味吗？焦赖皇冠城的居民正为了这件事情而奋斗了许久。主流媒体和报章都没有报道，隐瞒许多人民，避免我们知道真相。在此，我呼吁各位网友，将心比心，把这些新闻和资讯，用网络散发出去。欢迎各位转载这篇文章。让暴政会恐惧人民的力量。
这又是另外一个政府留下来的烂摊子。
请各位拜访以下的部落格和支持他们。你会发现更多真相。
http://photosglong.blogspot.com/
http://sglong.blogspot.com/
不能说的秘密
23/4/08
今天买进了一个股。 买了5000units.
暂时不可以公布它的名字，很抱歉。因为答应了某位网友，得到他的允许后，自然会把研究拿出来分享。
先说说研究的经过。通过财务报告，我发现这家公司隐瞒了某些盈利。我认为，不到一年的时间，这笔盈利一定会在财报里，浮现出来。以现在的本益比买进，约为7.5倍。可是把该项盈利计算进去，这家公司可能会有4倍的本益比。本来还想拜访它，因为有许多不确定的数字。可是，今天的量突然上涨许多，所以就忍不住以高出自己目标价格的RM0.015买进了。
也许受到了市场乐观的气氛影响和Evergreen的打击。
经过那位网友的允许，我将公开该项研究。在这里谢谢他的分享和给与的机会。
其它研究
2008年4月22日星期二
中国的风暴会比美国更严重
这是今天的股市闭市图。3100点了，虽然我们不是中国人，不会因此而烧到手，可是有不少持有中国股市基金的朋友，现在的市值正在大幅度减低。有看我写的 观念的朋友，应该明白为何这个时候的基金会比直接投资于中国股市，亏更多的钱。
也许会有了解我的朋友，奇怪为何我突然关心起技术走势来了。其实不然。我要提醒各位的，不是中国股市危险，而是中国的经济有危机。
现在，我们是看不到问题的。因为有“好运”奥运和原产品高涨的因素，中国的经济才不会那么脆弱。奥运过去了，和原产品的泡沫结束后呢？
由于中国的人口结构，我认为原产品价格泡沫和通胀带来的风暴，肯定比美国更严重。美国已经开始脱离风暴眼了。
如果经济基本面良好（企业的盈利继续提升），熊来了，还是会走的。 如果基本面改变了，经济放缓，甚至衰退，期待股市上涨的，肯定是发梦！
现在的3100点，我不是马后炮。请看我在年初一月的作品。还在继续买大众银行信托基金的朋友，请自求多福。股市低了，还可以再低。请参考林区的名言。
中国的股灾预警
股灾成型
投资中国的危机1
投资中国的危机2
一月后的股灾看法
其它
2008年4月19日星期六
有钱人的想法
The Secrets of millionaire mind
有钱人想的和你不一样
我第一次阅读时，才发觉自己为什么很穷。
恨不得自己多了解有钱人是怎么想的。
T.Harv Eker 替我打开了一扇窗。
去年，知道他本人第一次来亚洲，就和女朋友过去新加坡。我们花费了大约
RM1，000（包括住宿、交通和食物）来上这个课程。
那是一个工作营（workshop) ，不只是讲解有钱人的观点，也检视你对于金钱的性格，人生的规划和寻找生命的意义。和许多相关类似的课程，完全不同。层次非常高。而且，我们还认识了许多从亚洲各国飞来参与他课程的人，包括菲律宾、泰国、印尼、日本、台湾和中国人。如果谁是这本书的读者，你应该了解T.Harv Eker 的价值和能力。
5月23日，T.Harv Eker 本人将会来大马吉隆坡，举办相关的课程。我觉得是难得的机会，所以在此特别分享。根据目前的票价，大约是RM350一个人。我希望集结更多人，以向主办单位要求更便宜的票。如果谁有更便宜的票，也可以告诉我。
谢谢！我将在27/4/08 订票。
不想错失这个机会的朋友，可以电邮我。请留下你们的联络方式，如电话或电邮。
任何详情，可以在这里留下评论。也可以善用Google。
记得，在27/4/08之前决定。
learning.ydy@gmail.com
以下是在课程里学到的其中一个观念：
杀鹅取卵
2008年4月17日星期四
Survival of the Richest by Robert Kiyosaki
Taken from www.yahoo.com
Most of us are aware of the sacrificial slaughter of Bear Sterns. Some people call it a bailout, but I call it a handout -- a government handout to some of the richest people on Earth, paid for by American taxpayers.
It's the survival of the richest, and the poorest be damned. There's something dismal about a society that operates by those values.
The Economy on Life Support
I understand why the Federal Reserve did what it did with Bear Stearns. The Fed was doing its job -- acting as the lender of last resort, pumping money into a dying system. It wanted to prevent a run on the bank and economic chaos. It was a very creative financing move, using the Fed's magic checkbook to pump more liquidity into a thirsty market -- sort of like a physician administering life-saving measures to a critically wounded patient.
My problem with the move is that the Fed saved this patient because it's a wealthy one. Saving the biggest investment banks in America is welfare for the rich. Would the Fed do that for you or me if we screwed up our investment portfolio? Is the Fed going to bail out the millions of people facing foreclosure because the value of their homes is less than their mortgages? If I'm a small-business owner and fall behind on my taxes, is the Fed going to pay my taxes for me? If I can't pay off my college loan, will the fed pay it for me?
Aren't these investment bankers supposed to be the smartest guys in the world? Aren't they the people we entrust with our investment and retirement money? Aren't they supposed to be financially fit? Some blame subprime borrowers as the culprits in this mess, but the supposedly brilliant investment bankers bought their mortgages. Was that smart?
A Handout for the Rich
This bailout was a signal to Wall Street that the Fed stands behind them -- that they're on the same team. It was a thumbs-up to the super-rich: "Do what you want. If you screw up, we'll cover your blunders."
Ralph Nader's father purportedly once said that "Capitalism will never fail because Socialism will always bail it out." My concern, especially in this election year, is that socialists will seek revenge. Already I can hear the war cry "tax the rich!" The problem with taxing the truly rich is that the rich simply move their money to countries that treat them and their money with undue respect. And when the rich move their money, the poor and middle class end up paying more taxes.
Not only will taxes go up, but the prices of food and fuel will increase, because the purchasing power of the dollar will continue to decline. This rise in cost of living, plus higher taxes and stagnant wages, could lead to unrest -- protests, riots, and possibly chaos. In other words, what the Federal Reserve was attempting to prevent may happen anyway.
When Capitalism Stumbles
Bailing out the rich means over $800 billion from the Fed's magic checkbook entered the market. Immediately, the stock market rebounded and the price of gold and silver declined. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro. While this looks like a good sign, I'm afraid the problem isn't solved. The inevitable may only have been delayed.
Our problem is a toxic U.S. dollar. Printing funny money steals from the poor and middle class, savers, and the elderly. It may be legal, but it isn't moral or ethical. As long as the Fed is allowed to wield its power at will, the prices for food and fuel will only go up.
So will the price of gold and silver. Some are calling for gold and silver to go over $2,500 and $200 an ounce, respectively. Some even believe gold will go as high as $5,000 an ounce. I hope not. While I get excited about seeing the gold I purchased for less than $300 an ounce flirt with $1,000 an ounce, I also begin to worry.
The rise in the price of gold is a sign that capitalism has stumbled. And when capitalism stumbles, workers' wages buy less and savings are wiped out. Even gains from the stock market are diminished because our dollar gains are worth less.
Troubles Past and Present
Throughout history, when capitalism stumbles chaos erupts and sometimes despots take over. For example:
• In 1897, the Russian ruble was pegged to gold and a period of relative economic growth followed. Russia went off the gold standard to finance World War I. The government fell to the Bolsheviks in 1917, and the Russian mafia took control of the economy.
• After World War I, the German middle class was wiped out and Adolf Hitler was voted into power in 1933.
• In the 1930s, China was the only country on the silver standard. In 1935, the nationalist Chinese government started issuing paper money. In 1937, in order to fight the Japanese, the government began printing funny money. The value of their currency went from four yuan per dollar in 1936 to a trillion yuan per dollar in 1949. In May of 1949, the Chinese government fell to Mao Tse-Tung and the Communists.
• In 1984, Yugoslavia hosted the Winter Olympics just as their currency, the dinar, began to devalue. In 1989, the IMF recommended more devaluation and the freezing of workers' wages. Rioting broke out, and in 1989 Communist party leader Slobodan Milsoevic was elected into power. Yugoslavia broke apart as war and ethnic cleansing began.
As capitalism falters, the rich move their money out of the country, violence increases, and politicians promising prosperity are elected. It's happened before, and I fear it's happening again. Trouble brews when we steal from the poor and give to the rich.
2008年4月15日星期二
KrisAssets holdings
IGB和Tan ＡＮＤ ＴＡＮ Ｄｅｖ 是老牌的房产公司。它们属于同一批股东和管理层。
几年前，他们合并了。保留ＩＧＢ为控股公司。
ＭＩｄｖａｌｌｅｙ是ＩＧＢ 旗下的其中一个资产。
Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ 在１１月１９９９年开张营业。整个计划是在金融风暴之前开始进行的。
这一点，要特别注意。因为，这个过渡期，显示了ＩＧＢ管理层的优越能力。
整个金融风暴前后，ＩＧＢ都没有面临亏损。不过盈利则很明显的大幅下滑，近几年，才再度回升。
ＩＧＢ旗下，有几项资产。ＩＧＢ本身的核心业务是房地产或发展商。Ｔａｎ ＡＮｄ Ｔａｎ则握有许多地库。
除了Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ，就是酒店（Ｒｅｎａｉｓａｉｎｃｅ Ｈｏｔｅｌ）和Pangkor Beach Resorts ，澳洲的Ipoh Limited （上市的Supermarket），22% 的IJM，和英国的旅店。
早几年， IGB脱售了IpohLimited 和IJM （近3年）的股权。获得了一些一次性的盈利。
这些盈利，很明显的，没有帮助IGB提升业绩。原因应该是在金融风暴后，为了庞大的Midvalley计划，
而负担了很大的债务。翻看2004-2007年的财务报告，可以看到IGB的现金持续增加，而债务成功减少。不过，依然是净负债。
2004年，IGB通过脱售Midvalley 给KrisAssets，过后收购KrissAssets的74%股权，替Midvalley倒置上市。并且持有至今。
上市计划，也发行了债卷。
因此，上市的主要目的，还是为了还债。这几年业绩的改善，可以归功于Midvalley的成功。Midvalley替IGB集团赚的盈利，接近整个集团的一半。
2007年的业绩飚青，因为地产和酒店（旅游年）的业务都很好。
所以目前IGB 旗下的资产是房产业务，酒店和Pangkor Beach Resorts, 上市的KrisAssets (74%) ,以及英国的资产。
而Midvalley 则100% 属于KrisAssets。
对我个人而言， 我会认为IGB的业务很多元化，而且很复杂（有许多Internal Revenue）。我还是比较喜欢业务简单的Midvalley。
Midvalley的业务就是收取租金和Carpark 的钱。
看了以上三年的报告。我想在这里分享几个重点。2007年的ＥＰＳ在最后一个季度大幅度增加。因为１２月的估值，Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ在一年里增加了ＲＭ７０Ｍ。大约４＋＋％。 所以，真实的盈利是要扣除这些增值的。
我认为，看Ｃａｓｈｆｌｏｗ的变化，才更容易看出Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ真正的收入。大家可以看到每年的净收入，大约是ＲＭ１００Ｍ。
每年一亿的净现金收入。
如果一年一亿的净现金收入，每股可获得ＲＭ０．２８４。我认为，ＥＰＳ以ＲＭ０．２８４ 来算是比较准确的数字。
它的长期债务已经从２００５年的６５０Ｍ，减少到２００７年的５５０Ｍ。 大家可以做个简单的数学。去年的１００Ｍ，还了７０Ｍ（６２０Ｍ变成５５０Ｍ）的长期债务，另外的ＲＭ３０Ｍ正好是股息。所以，我有理由相信，管理层是以７：３来分配净收入。
２００７年的Ａｓｓｅｔｓ注明，Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ市值１７亿５千万。
目前的长期债务扣除所有现金后，是一年盈利的４倍。
投资Midvalley的回报，我的个人看法是这样的。如果每年RM1亿的净收入是估计正确的，它需要5年左右，才可以还清债务。根据每年的70%*1亿来算。
这五年，享有的股息是每年RM0.284*30%=RM0.085。
不过，五年后，就会有RM0.284 的净现金。怎么使用，就要观察管理层的计划。对我们最好的，当然是资本回退。到时才是丰收的时候。
对Midvalley 的好事，除了租金上涨之外，就要看Thegardens 对它的盈利影响。
The Gardens 在9月07年开张。2008年，才能正式带来收入。根据我在上个周末的亲身考察，The Gardens属于高尚的市场，强调Lifestyle。这种业务在M型社会，会发展得非常好。我估计，TheGardens 将会推升Midvalley的盈利接近10% 。长期而言，也许可以增长到20-25% 之间。
就是说，今年Midvalley的收入，应该可以轻易超越RM1亿1千万。以现在的市价买进，绝对是在单位数本益比，接近10。值不值得投资，因人而异。
根据管理层的报告，他们正在向政府当局申请，要求Putra LRT或Monorail增建一个站在TheGardens。
我认为，Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ就是有持久竞争力的公司。欢迎各位关于这点的任何看法。我认为，它的生意是可以轻易的估计１０年维持不变。现在的经济环境，随 时出现经济衰退。不过，我认为不管怎么程度的衰退，都无法影响Ｍｉｄｖａｌｌｅｙ 的生意模式，导致它亏损。赚少钱，是可能的，不是亏损。
所以，在经济循环后，它的盈利能力又会被展现。它属于可以长期持有的股票，尤其是在清还债务后。
关于MidValley的优势，我总结以下几点：
1。优秀的管理层 （ＩＧＢ）
２。简单的业务
３。强劲的现金流
４。品牌和护城河 （要投资这么多，而且需要维持稳定的盈利，不是那么容易）
５。良好的地理位置 （可以升值）
６。属于多数人消费的品牌
其他的，欢迎你们补充。
2008年4月12日星期六
Shell Refining (4324)-- Version III
Briefing- Shell Refining Company is a refining company,they do not do oil-rig. If you still not sure about what is this Shell doing, can visit to my research before. There Version I and Version II.
If you already read my research about Shell, you will find that Shell Refining Company is not growing and expanding. The only reason we will invest in it, is to enjoy the dividend. But, here is the problem. The EPS has nothing to do with dividend, as the EPS include stockholding gain, which is not cash! For example, in 2007, Shell EPS is RM1.97. But, does it having net cashflow RM2 per share? I doubt on this. There is the reason i start to spend my time to investigate the variables and how we can determine the cash surplus of Shell. This is important as the dividend is payout according to cash surplus!
So, we have a first important variable, termed refining margin. Above diagram show us that the simple idea about how to calculate refining margin. From the diagram, we also know the variable that affect the refining margin.
Second important variable, must be sales in barrels. The volume of sales definitely will affect the income of SRC. Do not consider revenue in Ringgit as the refining margin and sales price vary every year. So, the above diagram confirm that sales of SRC is not growing. 2007, the sales in barrels are 41Million.
3rd, after we have income, we must deduct the expenses. Above diagram give us another summary about the capacity of SRC and capital that used every year. I have a better idea about this calculation. Be patient!
4th, above diagram is the crude oil price until 2007. But it is enough to tell us the secret about relation in between Shell Cashflow and crude oil price.
After talking so much, whats are the refining margin amount?
There are refining margin of SRC from 2003 till 2007. You should click google advert everyday as i help you to get all these chart! Thanks!
Before that, we are having some argument. Does Shell receive benefits or harm when crude oil price increases? Now, we have facts to end this argument. Please study the chart in JUN 06, see the sharp fall in both diagram? Still not convincing? study both diagram in OCT 03 and OCT 04.
The price trends are simultaneous. So, good news here! with increment on crude oil price, refining margin increases. But, please bear in mind, sales in barrels may reduce.
Here, come to the most important part. Just to remind you, i would like to find out the net cashflow by Shell. I assume a formula, predicted cash receive by SRC:
Cash = (sales in barrels*refining margin*exchange rate)-all expenses.
The total expenses, we may get it from income statement. Suprise! My own calculation is almost match all numbers (cash before working capital changes) from annual reports in 5 years!
So, this becomes clear. The variables that affect cash received by SRC is Sales Volume, Refining margin, exchange rates, and expenses. Exchange rates and expenses can be considered constant.
The bottom table show us the net cashflow in column cash surplus. Cash per share is the true earning power by SRC, without stockholding gain.
Let us practice how to calculate the return of Shell compare to its share price now. Let us take the SRC price at RM11. As the crude oil price is still hiking, i predict refining margin 08 is USD7.20. exchange rates is 3.10. sales 08 is 41Million. The predicted cash received is RM915,000,000. expenses is around RM55Million. The cash is RM860,000,000. We apply the maximum ratio, 2.5. Cash before investing is RM344,000,000. If SRC invest RM44,000,000 in plant 2008, the net cashflow is RM300,000,000. Cash per share is RM1.00 as it is having 300,000,000 issued share. The return rate is about 9-10%. Dividend yield is around 5-7%, which is 55sen to 80sen.
SHELL I
SHELL II
OTHERS
2008年4月9日星期三
好久不见
谢谢你们的支持。最近没有Ｕｐｄａｔｅ和更新部落格，因为正在沉淀。
最近忙着阅读一个部落格，作者是大马人，ＵｎｃｌｅＳＡＭ。
他也是功力高深的基本派投资者。
看了最近的市场，发现到开始冷冻了，市场也没有特别热门的主题来炒作。
我认为，下一轮的大涨将会在短期掀开序幕。不过，许多有经验的老手，都在网路上看跌，而且还会跌得深（也许不急）。他们都不约而同地在等着ＰＥ〈１０ 的蓝筹股。
考虑到我在股市的经验很浅，也许他们是对的。那么，我就会变得很矛盾了。
ＵｎｃｌｅＳＡＭ却给了一个很好的策略，实在是有经验的老手。他一直使用１：１ 的比例。例如，今天我有着市值ＲＭ１０，０００ 的股票，同时也有ＲＭ１０，０００ 的现金。现在，市场不管会大涨或大跌，我都会因此而受惠。
而且，在市场涨得太多和太急时，为了维持这个比例，就要自律的抛售一些股票，获取更多现金。这对迫使自己套利，是非常有效的。可是，就不适于准备长期持票的人。如果真的决心长期持有某些公司，就要严格的挑选一些较差的公司，来抛售。
这会达到去芜存菁的效果。
中国股灾
跌停板
一月的股灾
2008年4月1日星期二
巫统党争
昨天在东方看到KHir Toyo 的专访。 对不起，我买一年的，不看不行。
他已经言明要攻打巫青团的主席之职。我对巫统的党争很感兴趣。
现在，不妨来分析一下，会是怎么样的形势。Hishammuddin肯定是攻打副主席。
拉伯的人马，就是凯利攻打巫青团的主席，不知道Toyo 是那吉的人吗？
只能肯定Toyo 不是拉伯的阵营。还有另外一个可能竞争者是老马的儿子。
刚借尸还魂的MOHD，肯定是拉伯的署理主席人选，如果那吉挑战皇座。
今天，操控巫统选举制度的幕尤丁，却放话支持马哈蒂的取消固打制。从这点看来，幕兹里可能直接剑指副主席，和幕尤丁南北搭配。别忘记，老马一直都是很性急的人。从来不按部就班。
如果那吉真的开战，那么谁是他的副手呢？这实在令人好奇。每个人对他都有顾忌，自从有了C4 的案例。我个人顾忌，也许都不是这些红人。因为许多幕后的元老，应该会盘算这次党争，让自己从新回到权利的巅峰。
我只能肯定，老马不喜欢拉伯，也不喜欢那吉。所以，才会有拉沙里这个人出来喧叫。
还有一点，拉伯可能在审时度势后，认定自己输定时，自行退出，以交换自保的条件。
所以，大家期待的党主席战，可能打不成。从朋友处，听到一个流言，就是拉伯也可能投靠安华。不过，权力使人腐败，早都烂到手根去了，怎么放手？
比较可能的是，拉伯和挑战派妥协，以求自保。
只有变天，才可以看到公审凯利的精彩戏码。
之前的看法：
基尔的阵营
选后的看法
大选之前的分析--精华
