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2008年4月17日星期四

Survival of the Richest by Robert Kiyosaki

Taken from www.yahoo.com

Most of us are aware of the sacrificial slaughter of Bear Sterns. Some people call it a bailout, but I call it a handout -- a government handout to some of the richest people on Earth, paid for by American taxpayers.

It's the survival of the richest, and the poorest be damned. There's something dismal about a society that operates by those values.

The Economy on Life Support

I understand why the Federal Reserve did what it did with Bear Stearns. The Fed was doing its job -- acting as the lender of last resort, pumping money into a dying system. It wanted to prevent a run on the bank and economic chaos. It was a very creative financing move, using the Fed's magic checkbook to pump more liquidity into a thirsty market -- sort of like a physician administering life-saving measures to a critically wounded patient.

My problem with the move is that the Fed saved this patient because it's a wealthy one. Saving the biggest investment banks in America is welfare for the rich. Would the Fed do that for you or me if we screwed up our investment portfolio? Is the Fed going to bail out the millions of people facing foreclosure because the value of their homes is less than their mortgages? If I'm a small-business owner and fall behind on my taxes, is the Fed going to pay my taxes for me? If I can't pay off my college loan, will the fed pay it for me?

Aren't these investment bankers supposed to be the smartest guys in the world? Aren't they the people we entrust with our investment and retirement money? Aren't they supposed to be financially fit? Some blame subprime borrowers as the culprits in this mess, but the supposedly brilliant investment bankers bought their mortgages. Was that smart?

A Handout for the Rich

This bailout was a signal to Wall Street that the Fed stands behind them -- that they're on the same team. It was a thumbs-up to the super-rich: "Do what you want. If you screw up, we'll cover your blunders."

Ralph Nader's father purportedly once said that "Capitalism will never fail because Socialism will always bail it out." My concern, especially in this election year, is that socialists will seek revenge. Already I can hear the war cry "tax the rich!" The problem with taxing the truly rich is that the rich simply move their money to countries that treat them and their money with undue respect. And when the rich move their money, the poor and middle class end up paying more taxes.

Not only will taxes go up, but the prices of food and fuel will increase, because the purchasing power of the dollar will continue to decline. This rise in cost of living, plus higher taxes and stagnant wages, could lead to unrest -- protests, riots, and possibly chaos. In other words, what the Federal Reserve was attempting to prevent may happen anyway.

When Capitalism Stumbles

Bailing out the rich means over $800 billion from the Fed's magic checkbook entered the market. Immediately, the stock market rebounded and the price of gold and silver declined. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro. While this looks like a good sign, I'm afraid the problem isn't solved. The inevitable may only have been delayed.

Our problem is a toxic U.S. dollar. Printing funny money steals from the poor and middle class, savers, and the elderly. It may be legal, but it isn't moral or ethical. As long as the Fed is allowed to wield its power at will, the prices for food and fuel will only go up.

So will the price of gold and silver. Some are calling for gold and silver to go over $2,500 and $200 an ounce, respectively. Some even believe gold will go as high as $5,000 an ounce. I hope not. While I get excited about seeing the gold I purchased for less than $300 an ounce flirt with $1,000 an ounce, I also begin to worry.

The rise in the price of gold is a sign that capitalism has stumbled. And when capitalism stumbles, workers' wages buy less and savings are wiped out. Even gains from the stock market are diminished because our dollar gains are worth less.

Troubles Past and Present

Throughout history, when capitalism stumbles chaos erupts and sometimes despots take over. For example:

In 1897, the Russian ruble was pegged to gold and a period of relative economic growth followed. Russia went off the gold standard to finance World War I. The government fell to the Bolsheviks in 1917, and the Russian mafia took control of the economy.

After World War I, the German middle class was wiped out and Adolf Hitler was voted into power in 1933.

In the 1930s, China was the only country on the silver standard. In 1935, the nationalist Chinese government started issuing paper money. In 1937, in order to fight the Japanese, the government began printing funny money. The value of their currency went from four yuan per dollar in 1936 to a trillion yuan per dollar in 1949. In May of 1949, the Chinese government fell to Mao Tse-Tung and the Communists.

In 1984, Yugoslavia hosted the Winter Olympics just as their currency, the dinar, began to devalue. In 1989, the IMF recommended more devaluation and the freezing of workers' wages. Rioting broke out, and in 1989 Communist party leader Slobodan Milsoevic was elected into power. Yugoslavia broke apart as war and ethnic cleansing began.

As capitalism falters, the rich move their money out of the country, violence increases, and politicians promising prosperity are elected. It's happened before, and I fear it's happening again. Trouble brews when we steal from the poor and give to the rich.

2008年4月15日星期二

KrisAssets holdings





IGB和Tan AND TAN Dev 是老牌的房产公司。它们属于同一批股东和管理层。
几年前,他们合并了。保留IGB为控股公司。
MIdvalley是IGB 旗下的其中一个资产。
Midvalley 在11月1999年开张营业。整个计划是在金融风暴之前开始进行的。
这一点,要特别注意。因为,这个过渡期,显示了IGB管理层的优越能力。

整个金融风暴前后,IGB都没有面临亏损。不过盈利则很明显的大幅下滑,近几年,才再度回升。
IGB旗下,有几项资产。IGB本身的核心业务是房地产或发展商。Tan ANd Tan则握有许多地库。

除了Midvalley,就是酒店(Renaisaince Hotel)和Pangkor Beach Resorts ,澳洲的Ipoh Limited (上市的Supermarket),22% 的IJM,和英国的旅店。
早几年, IGB脱售了IpohLimited 和IJM (近3年)的股权。获得了一些一次性的盈利。

这些盈利,很明显的,没有帮助IGB提升业绩。原因应该是在金融风暴后,为了庞大的Midvalley计划,
而负担了很大的债务。翻看2004-2007年的财务报告,可以看到IGB的现金持续增加,而债务成功减少。不过,依然是净负债。

2004年,IGB通过脱售Midvalley 给KrisAssets,过后收购KrissAssets的74%股权,替Midvalley倒置上市。并且持有至今。
上市计划,也发行了债卷。
因此,上市的主要目的,还是为了还债。这几年业绩的改善,可以归功于Midvalley的成功。Midvalley替IGB集团赚的盈利,接近整个集团的一半。
2007年的业绩飚青,因为地产和酒店(旅游年)的业务都很好。

所以目前IGB 旗下的资产是房产业务,酒店和Pangkor Beach Resorts, 上市的KrisAssets (74%) ,以及英国的资产。
而Midvalley 则100% 属于KrisAssets。

对我个人而言, 我会认为IGB的业务很多元化,而且很复杂(有许多Internal Revenue)。我还是比较喜欢业务简单的Midvalley。
Midvalley的业务就是收取租金和Carpark 的钱。

看了以上三年的报告。我想在这里分享几个重点。2007年的EPS在最后一个季度大幅度增加。因为12月的估值,Midvalley在一年里增加了RM70M。大约4++%。 所以,真实的盈利是要扣除这些增值的。

我认为,看Cashflow的变化,才更容易看出Midvalley真正的收入。大家可以看到每年的净收入,大约是RM100M。
每年一亿的净现金收入。

如果一年一亿的净现金收入,每股可获得RM0.284。我认为,EPS以RM0.284 来算是比较准确的数字。

它的长期债务已经从2005年的650M,减少到2007年的550M。 大家可以做个简单的数学。去年的100M,还了70M(620M变成550M)的长期债务,另外的RM30M正好是股息。所以,我有理由相信,管理层是以7:3来分配净收入。

2007年的Assets注明,Midvalley市值17亿5千万。

目前的长期债务扣除所有现金后,是一年盈利的4倍。

投资Midvalley的回报,我的个人看法是这样的。如果每年RM1亿的净收入是估计正确的,它需要5年左右,才可以还清债务。根据每年的70%*1亿来算。
这五年,享有的股息是每年RM0.284*30%=RM0.085。

不过,五年后,就会有RM0.284 的净现金。怎么使用,就要观察管理层的计划。对我们最好的,当然是资本回退。到时才是丰收的时候。

对Midvalley 的好事,除了租金上涨之外,就要看Thegardens 对它的盈利影响。
The Gardens 在9月07年开张。2008年,才能正式带来收入。根据我在上个周末的亲身考察,The Gardens属于高尚的市场,强调Lifestyle。这种业务在M型社会,会发展得非常好。我估计,TheGardens 将会推升Midvalley的盈利接近10% 。长期而言,也许可以增长到20-25% 之间。

就是说,今年Midvalley的收入,应该可以轻易超越RM1亿1千万。以现在的市价买进,绝对是在单位数本益比,接近10。值不值得投资,因人而异。

根据管理层的报告,他们正在向政府当局申请,要求Putra LRT或Monorail增建一个站在TheGardens。

我认为,Midvalley就是有持久竞争力的公司。欢迎各位关于这点的任何看法。我认为,它的生意是可以轻易的估计10年维持不变。现在的经济环境,随 时出现经济衰退。不过,我认为不管怎么程度的衰退,都无法影响Midvalley 的生意模式,导致它亏损。赚少钱,是可能的,不是亏损。

所以,在经济循环后,它的盈利能力又会被展现。它属于可以长期持有的股票,尤其是在清还债务后。

关于MidValley的优势,我总结以下几点:

1。优秀的管理层 (IGB)
2。简单的业务
3。强劲的现金流
4。品牌和护城河 (要投资这么多,而且需要维持稳定的盈利,不是那么容易)
5。良好的地理位置 (可以升值)
6。属于多数人消费的品牌

其他的,欢迎你们补充。

2008年4月12日星期六

Shell Refining (4324)-- Version III

Briefing- Shell Refining Company is a refining company,they do not do oil-rig. If you still not sure about what is this Shell doing, can visit to my research before. There Version I and Version II.


If you already read my research about Shell, you will find that Shell Refining Company is not growing and expanding. The only reason we will invest in it, is to enjoy the dividend. But, here is the problem. The EPS has nothing to do with dividend, as the EPS include stockholding gain, which is not cash! For example, in 2007, Shell EPS is RM1.97. But, does it having net cashflow RM2 per share? I doubt on this. There is the reason i start to spend my time to investigate the variables and how we can determine the cash surplus of Shell. This is important as the dividend is payout according to cash surplus!

So, we have a first important variable, termed refining margin. Above diagram show us that the simple idea about how to calculate refining margin. From the diagram, we also know the variable that affect the refining margin.

Second important variable, must be sales in barrels. The volume of sales definitely will affect the income of SRC. Do not consider revenue in Ringgit as the refining margin and sales price vary every year. So, the above diagram confirm that sales of SRC is not growing. 2007, the sales in barrels are 41Million.


3rd, after we have income, we must deduct the expenses. Above diagram give us another summary about the capacity of SRC and capital that used every year. I have a better idea about this calculation. Be patient!


4th, above diagram is the crude oil price until 2007. But it is enough to tell us the secret about relation in between Shell Cashflow and crude oil price.

After talking so much, whats are the refining margin amount?

There are refining margin of SRC from 2003 till 2007. You should click google advert everyday as i help you to get all these chart! Thanks!

Before that, we are having some argument. Does Shell receive benefits or harm when crude oil price increases? Now, we have facts to end this argument. Please study the chart in JUN 06, see the sharp fall in both diagram? Still not convincing? study both diagram in OCT 03 and OCT 04.
The price trends are simultaneous. So, good news here! with increment on crude oil price, refining margin increases. But, please bear in mind, sales in barrels may reduce.


Here, come to the most important part. Just to remind you, i would like to find out the net cashflow by Shell. I assume a formula, predicted cash receive by SRC:
Cash = (sales in barrels*refining margin*exchange rate)-all expenses.

The total expenses, we may get it from income statement. Suprise! My own calculation is almost match all numbers (cash before working capital changes) from annual reports in 5 years!
So, this becomes clear. The variables that affect cash received by SRC is Sales Volume, Refining margin, exchange rates, and expenses. Exchange rates and expenses can be considered constant.

The bottom table show us the net cashflow in column cash surplus. Cash per share is the true earning power by SRC, without stockholding gain.


Let us practice how to calculate the return of Shell compare to its share price now. Let us take the SRC price at RM11. As the crude oil price is still hiking, i predict refining margin 08 is USD7.20. exchange rates is 3.10. sales 08 is 41Million. The predicted cash received is RM915,000,000. expenses is around RM55Million. The cash is RM860,000,000. We apply the maximum ratio, 2.5. Cash before investing is RM344,000,000. If SRC invest RM44,000,000 in plant 2008, the net cashflow is RM300,000,000. Cash per share is RM1.00 as it is having 300,000,000 issued share. The return rate is about 9-10%. Dividend yield is around 5-7%, which is 55sen to 80sen.

SHELL I
SHELL II
OTHERS

2008年4月9日星期三

好久不见

谢谢你们的支持。最近没有Update和更新部落格,因为正在沉淀。
最近忙着阅读一个部落格,作者是大马人,UncleSAM。

他也是功力高深的基本派投资者。

看了最近的市场,发现到开始冷冻了,市场也没有特别热门的主题来炒作。

我认为,下一轮的大涨将会在短期掀开序幕。不过,许多有经验的老手,都在网路上看跌,而且还会跌得深(也许不急)。他们都不约而同地在等着PE〈10 的蓝筹股。

考虑到我在股市的经验很浅,也许他们是对的。那么,我就会变得很矛盾了。

UncleSAM却给了一个很好的策略,实在是有经验的老手。他一直使用1:1 的比例。例如,今天我有着市值RM10,000 的股票,同时也有RM10,000 的现金。现在,市场不管会大涨或大跌,我都会因此而受惠。

而且,在市场涨得太多和太急时,为了维持这个比例,就要自律的抛售一些股票,获取更多现金。这对迫使自己套利,是非常有效的。可是,就不适于准备长期持票的人。如果真的决心长期持有某些公司,就要严格的挑选一些较差的公司,来抛售。

这会达到去芜存菁的效果。


中国股灾
跌停板
一月的股灾

2008年4月1日星期二

巫统党争

昨天在东方看到KHir Toyo 的专访。 对不起,我买一年的,不看不行。
他已经言明要攻打巫青团的主席之职。我对巫统的党争很感兴趣。
现在,不妨来分析一下,会是怎么样的形势。Hishammuddin肯定是攻打副主席。
拉伯的人马,就是凯利攻打巫青团的主席,不知道Toyo 是那吉的人吗?
只能肯定Toyo 不是拉伯的阵营。还有另外一个可能竞争者是老马的儿子。
刚借尸还魂的MOHD,肯定是拉伯的署理主席人选,如果那吉挑战皇座。

今天,操控巫统选举制度的幕尤丁,却放话支持马哈蒂的取消固打制。从这点看来,幕兹里可能直接剑指副主席,和幕尤丁南北搭配。别忘记,老马一直都是很性急的人。从来不按部就班。

如果那吉真的开战,那么谁是他的副手呢?这实在令人好奇。每个人对他都有顾忌,自从有了C4 的案例。我个人顾忌,也许都不是这些红人。因为许多幕后的元老,应该会盘算这次党争,让自己从新回到权利的巅峰。

我只能肯定,老马不喜欢拉伯,也不喜欢那吉。所以,才会有拉沙里这个人出来喧叫。

还有一点,拉伯可能在审时度势后,认定自己输定时,自行退出,以交换自保的条件。
所以,大家期待的党主席战,可能打不成。从朋友处,听到一个流言,就是拉伯也可能投靠安华。不过,权力使人腐败,早都烂到手根去了,怎么放手?

比较可能的是,拉伯和挑战派妥协,以求自保。
只有变天,才可以看到公审凯利的精彩戏码。


之前的看法:

基尔的阵营


选后的看法
大选之前的分析--精华